ClimateViewer and MyReadingMapped™ Credits
Created: December 24, 2012
Last Updated: November 23, 2018
ClimateViewer 3D
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This map by George Stiller and Jim Lee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Based on a work at climateviewer.org. Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at climateviewer.com/terms.

Other Interactive Maps on History
Try one of the many other Interactive Maps of Explorers and Historic Events at MyReadingMapped. http://climateviewer.org/myreadingmapped/

Symbol Coding Source Info
Yellow Markers: Media articles, white papers, etc.
Red Markers: The Third National Climate Assessment Report by the National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee (NCADAC) at globalchange.gov/ncadac (http://www.globalchange.gov/ncadac)

Read the Third National Climate Assessment Report
The Third National Climate Assessment Report by the National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee (NCADAC) (http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/)

Does the Pacific Ocean Garbage Patch affect the climate?
Interesting weather pattern over the the Pacific Ocean Garbage Patch (beige area) and the Japanese tsunami waste (blue area). Does this show how thermoplastic particles in our oceans affects the climate? To see if it also affects the Atlantic Ocean Garbage Patch, go to my map on Environmental Disasters.

Who is the National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee?
A 60-person Federal Advisory Committee (The "National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee" or NCADAC) oversaw the development of the draft climate report. The NCADAC, whose members are available here (and listed in the report), was established under the Department of Commerce in December 2010 and is supported through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It is a federal advisory committee established as per the Federal Advisory Committee Act of 1972. The Committee serves to oversee the activities of the National Climate Assessment. Its members are diverse in background, expertise, geography and sector. A formal record of the committee can be found at the NOAA NCADAC website. A list of the committee’s decisions and actions is available on our NCADAC page. http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/ncadac

35,000 walrus gather ashore on north-west Alaska beach 'for a rest' due to a lack of ice flows
An estimated 35,000 pacific walrus have been spotted ashore on a beach in north-west Alaska.                                                                                                Unlike seals, the mammals cannot swim indefinitely and are now coming ashore in record numbers as they struggle to find sea ice for resting in the Arctic.                                                                                                                                             They use their tusks to "haul out," or pull themselves onto an ice floe or rocks.                                                                                                             The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) photographed the huge gathering about five miles north of Point Lay

Eruption of Mount Pinatubo Global Environmental Impact
Wikipedia
USGS (http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.php)
The volcano's Plinian / Ultra-Plinian eruption on June 15, 1991 produced the second largest terrestrial eruption of the 20th century after the 1912 eruption of Novarupta in the Alaska Peninsula.[5] Complicating the eruption was the arrival of Typhoon Yunya bringing a lethal mix of ash and rain. Successful predictions at the onset of the climactic eruption led to the evacuation of tens of thousands of people from the surrounding areas, saving many lives, but the surrounding areas were severely damaged by pyroclastic flows, ash deposits, and subsequently, by the lahars caused by rainwaters re-mobilizing earlier volcanic deposits causing extensive destruction to infrastructure and altering the river systems months to years after the eruption.[5][6]
The effects of the eruption were felt worldwide. It ejected roughly 10,000,000,000 tonnes (1.1×1010 short tons) or 10 km3 (2.4 cu mi) of magma, and 20,000,000 tonnes (22,000,000 short tons) SO
2, bringing vast quantities of minerals and metals to the surface environment. It injected large amounts of aerosol into the stratosphere – more than any eruption since that of Krakatoa in 1883. Over the following months, the aerosols formed a global layer of sulfuric acid haze. Global temperatures dropped by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F), and ozone depletion temporarily increased substantially.[7]

Eruption of Mount Pinatubo

"Ice Age" glaciers once covered the Europe and the North American Continent
Wikipedia
Agassiz developed a theory of what he termed "Ice Age" — when glaciers covered Europe and much of North America. In 1837 Agassiz was the first to scientifically propose that the Earth had been subject to a past ice age.[8] William Buckland had led attempts in Britain to adapt the geological theory of catastrophism to account for erratic boulders and other "diluvium" as relics of the Biblical flood. This was strongly opposed by Charles Lyell's version of Hutton's uniformitarianism, and was gradually abandoned by Buckland and other catastrophist geologists. A field trip to the Alps with Agassiz in October 1838 convinced Buckland that features in Britain had been caused by glaciation, and both he and Lyell strongly supported the ice age theory which became widely accepted by the 1870s.

Sun spots and tree rings
Wikipedia
An Arizona astronomer, Andrew Ellicott Douglass, saw strong indications of climate change in tree rings. Noting that the rings were thinner in dry years, he reported climate effects from solar variations, particularly in connection with the 17th-century dearth of sunspots (the Maunder Minimum  noticed previously by William Hersche and others. Other scientists, however, found good reason to doubt that tree rings could reveal anything beyond random regional variations. The value of tree rings for climate study was not solidly established until the 1960s.

Deep-sea cores reveal a cycle of short "Ice Ages"
Another clue to the nature of climate change came in the mid-1960s from analysis of deep-sea cores by Cesare Emiliani and analysis of ancient corals by Wallace Broecker and collaborators. Rather than four long ice ages, they found a large number of shorter ones in a regular sequence. It appeared that the timing of ice ages was set by the small orbital shifts of the Milankovitch cycles. While the matter remained controversial, some began to suggest that the climate system is sensitive to small changes and can readily be flipped from a stable state into a different one.

Greenland ice cores reveal dramatic temperature oscillations
In 1982, Greenland ice cores drilled by Hans Oeschger, Willi Dansgaard, and collaborators revealed dramatic temperature oscillations in the space of a century in the distant past.[41]  The most prominent of the changes in their record corresponded to the violent Younger Dryas climate oscillation seen in shifts in types of pollen in lake beds all over Europe. Evidently drastic climate changes were possible within a human lifetime.

Chlorofluorocarbons
In 1973, British scientist James Lovelock speculated that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) could have a global warming effect. In 1975, V. Ramanathan found that a CFC molecule could be 10,000 times more effective in absorbing infrared radiation than a carbon dioxide molecule, making CFCs potentially important despite their very low concentrations in the atmosphere. While most early work on CFCs focused on their role in ozone depletion, by 1985 scientists had concluded that CFCs together with methane and other trace gases could have nearly as important a climate effect as increases in CO2.

Methane
In 1859, John Tyndall determined that coal gas, a mix of methane and other gases, strongly absorbed infrared radiation. Methane was subsequently detected in the atmosphere in 1948, and in the 1980s scientists realized that human emissions were having a substantial impact.

The melting of Colonia Glacier drains Lake Cachet II
Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonia_Glacier)
Colonia Glacier (Spanish: Glaciar Colonia or Ventisquero Colonia) is a valley glacier located in the Northern Patagonian Ice Field, Chile. The glacier spills out to the southeast from an ice plateau north of Cerro Arenales and has its terminus about 4 km (2.5 mi) from Colonia Lake. Colonia Glacier dams two lakes; Cachet II and Arco Lake. The ice dam containing the waters of Cachet II Lake fails regularly, which generates glacial lake outburst floods.
On March 31, 2012, for the second time that year, virtually all of the 200 million cubic liters of water in Lake Cachet II were lost in less than 24 hours as a result of perforations in the glacial wall, a consequence of rising temperatures driven by climate change. The lake has drained 11 times since 2008 and experts predict it will increase in frequency.[2]

Shrinking of the Aral Sea
According to Wikipedia, Formerly one of the four largest lakes in the world with an area of 68,000 square kilometres (26,300 sq mi), the Aral Sea has been steadily shrinking since the 1960s after the rivers that fed it were diverted by Soviet irrigation projects. By 2007, it had declined to 10% of its original size, splitting into four lakes – the North Aral Sea, the eastern and western basins of the once far larger South Aral Sea and one smaller lake between North and South Aral Seas.
The desiccation of the Aral Sea greatly increased the number of dust and salt storms in the area. Satellite images have revealed that there are up to ten major dust storms occurring annually in the region, most of them occurring between the months of April and July (Glantz 1999). While before, the pressure from the water surface dampened the strength of the northerly and north-easterly winds, the loss of the sea meant that it's protective action from the wind was significantly reduced. The receding sea left behind large amount of salt, and groundwater evaporation further increased the amount of salt from the exposed sea bed. The strong north-easterly winds now pick up the sand, salt, and dust, creating strong dust storms. The salt content in the dust made up about 30–40% of the volume in the summer, and was as high as 90% in the winter (Hydrometeorological Center of Uzbekistan). The storms are often between 150 and 300 km wide. The dust was distributed in areas far beyond the region - the dust from the Aral Sea region was found as far as 500km away from the original source (Micklin 2007). Some of the salt reached the intensively irrigated and cultivated soils, which even ruined the soil far away from the Aral Sea region. It was estimated that the average amount of salt removed from the entire dried seabed was about 43 million metric tons between 1960 and 1984 (Glantz 1999).
(source:eol.jsc.nasa.gov)
Wikipedia Commons / Public Domain

2010 Russian Wildfires
Wikipedia: (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_fires_in_Russia_2010)
"The 2010 Russian wildfires were several hundred wildfires that broke out across Russia, primarily in the west, starting in late July 2010, due to record temperatures (the hottest recorded summer in Russian history[3] and drought in the region.[4] Russian President Dmitry Medvedev declared a state of emergency in seven regions for the fires, while 28 other regions were under a state of emergency due to crop failures caused by the Russian drought. The fires cost roughly $15 billion USD in damages."

2010–2012 Southern United States Drought
Wikipedia:
"The 2010–2012 Southern United States drought is a severe to extreme ongoing drought  plaguing the US South, including parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The worst effects have been in Texas, where near-record drought has parched the state since January 2011. Texas suffered an estimated $7.62 billion in crop and livestock losses, surpassing its record loss of $4.1 billion in 2006. In Texas, combined with the rest of the South, at least $10 billion in agricultural losses were recorded in 2011. In 2010-11, Texas experienced its driest August–July (12-month) period on record."

Average Arctic Temperatures Increase
Wikipedia:
"Average Arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years."

Arctic Ice Melt Could Mean More Extreme Winters for the U.S. & Europe
The Huffington Post:
"The record loss of Arctic sea ice this summer will echo throughout the weather patterns affecting the U.S. and Europe this winter, climate scientists said on Wednesday, since added heat in the Arctic influences the jet stream and may make extreme weather and climate events more likely."
Public Domain / NASA

Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Map of Carbon Dioxide Emissions (http://www.targetmap.com/viewer.aspx?reportId=6216)

Change in Higher Altitude Terrestrial Biological Systems
Wikipedia:
"There are poleward and upward (to higher altitude) shifts in ranges of plant and animal species."

Change in Polar Terrestrial Biological Systems
- There are poleward and upward (to higher altitude) shifts in ranges of plant and animal species.
- Increasing ground instability in permafrost regions.

Displacement/Migration
"Extreme environmental events are increasingly recognized as a key driver of migration across the world. According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, more than 42 million people were displaced in Asia and the Pacific during 2010 and 2011, more than twice the population of Sri Lanka. This figure includes those displaced by storms, floods, and heat and cold waves. Still others were displaced drought and sea-level rise. Most of those compelled to leave their homes eventually returned when conditions improved, but an undetermined number became migrants, usually within their country, but also across national borders."

Great Barrier Reef
"Mass coral bleaching events due to elevated ocean temperatures occurred in the summers of 1998, 2002 and 2006, and coral bleaching is expected to become an annual occurrence. 5As global warming continues due to anthropogenic causes, corals will not be able to keep up with increasing ocean temperatures. Coral bleaching events lead to increased disease susceptibility, which causes detrimental ecological effects for reef communities. Climate change has implications for other forms of reef life—some fish's preferred temperature range leads them to seek new habitat, thus increasing chick mortality in predatory seabirds. Climate change will also affect the population and sea turtle's available habitat."

Greenland Ice Melt
Greenland Ice Melt, Measured By NASA Satellites, Reaches Unprecedented Level
"...data from three independent satellites this July, analyzed by NASA and university scientists, showed that in less than a week, the amount of thawed ice sheet surface skyrocketed from 40 percent to 97 percent."

Habitat Inundation
"In small islands and mega deltas, inundation as a result of sea level rise is expected to threaten vital infrastructure and human settlements. This could lead to issues of statelessness for populations in countries such as the Maldives and Tuvaslu and homelessness in countries with low lying areas such as Bangladesh."

Human Development of the Sahara
Wikipedia Sahara desert ecoregion, (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahara_Desert_(ecoregion))
"The Sahara was one of the first regions of Africa to be farmed. Some 5,000 years ago, the area was not so arid and the vegetation might have been closer to a savanna. Previous fauna may be recognised in stone carvings. However, desertification set in around 3000 BCE, and the area became much like it is today."

The Sahara Desert was once a moist savanah
The Tassili n'Ajjer mountain range is noted for its prehistoric rock art and other ancient archaeological sites, dating from Neolithic times when the local climate was more moist, with savannah rather than desert. It is not older than 9-10 millennias, according to OSL dating of associated sediments, but could be younger.[1]  The art depicts herds of cattle, large wild animals including crocodiles, and human activities such as hunting and dancing. According to UNESCO, "The range's exceptional density of rock art paintings-pictograms and engravings-petroglyphs, and the presence of many prehistoric vestiges, are remarkable testimonies to Neolithic prehistory. From 10,000 BCE to the first centuries CE, successive peoples left many archaeological remains, habitations, burial mounds and enclosures which have yielded abundant lithic and ceramic material. However, it is the rock art (engravings and paintings) that have made Tassili world famous as from 1933, the date of its discovery. 15,000 petroglyphs have been identified to date."

Tassili n'Ajjer Rock Art

Tassili n'Ajjer Rock Art: proof that people lived in what is now desert.

Hurricane Sandy - 2012: The largest Atlantic hurricane on record
Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Sandy)
"Hurricane Sandy was a hurricane that devastated portions of the Caribbean and the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States during late October 2012, with lesser impacts in the Southeastern and Midwestern states and Eastern Canada. Sandy, classified as the eighteenth named storm and tenth hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, was a Category 2 storm at its peak intensity. While it was a Category 1 storm off the coast of the Northeastern United States, the storm became the largest Atlantic hurricane on record (as measured by diameter, with winds spanning 1,100 miles (1,800 km)). Preliminary estimates of losses due to damage and business interruption are estimated at $65.6 billion (2012 USD), which would make it the second-costliest Atlantic hurricane, behind only Hurricane Katrina. At least 253 people were killed along the path of the storm in seven countries."

Blizzard Nemo 2013 follows Sandy
A record 38 inches of snow fell in Milton, CT on February 9, 2013 just months after the worst Hurricane in the area's history.

Increased Hurricane Activity
There has been an increase in hurricane intensity in the North Atlantic since the 1970s, and that increase correlates with increases in sea surface temperature."

Larsen B Ice Shelf 2002-2007
Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larsen_Ice_Shelf)
"During 31 January 2002–7 March 2002 the Larsen B sector collapsed and broke up, 3,250 km² of ice 220 m thick disintegrated, meaning an ice shelf covering an area comparable in size to the US state of Rhode Island collapsed in a single season."
Wikipedia Commons

Manhattan-sized iceberg breaks off the Petermann Glacier
Petermann Glacier In Greenland Breaks Off Iceberg Twice The Size Of Manhattan.
"For several years, scientists had been watching a long crack near the tip of the northerly Petermann Glacier. On Monday, NASA satellites showed it had broken completely, freeing an iceberg measuring 46 square miles."

Melting Aletsch Glacier
Melting Swiss Alps glacier.
Wikipedia on Aletsch. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aletsch_Glacier)

Ocean Warming
- Observations since 1961 show that the ocean has been absorbing more than 80% of the heat added to the climate system, and that ocean temperatures have increased to depths of at least 3000 m (9800 ft).
- Ocean warming causes seawater to expand, which contributes to sea level rising.
- Sea level rose at an average rate of about 1.8 mm/year during the years 1961-2003. The rise in sea level during 1993-2003 was at an average rate of 3.1 mm/year. It is not clear whether this is a long-term trend or just variability.
- Changes affecting algae, plankton, fish and zooplankton because rising water temperatures and changes in: -- ice cover

Ross Ice Shelf Collapse
DemocraticUnderground.com:
"SCIENTISTS working in Antarctica fear the Ross Ice Shelf, an ice platform the size of France, could collapse quickly and trigger a rapid rise in sea levels."

Shift in Magnetic Pole
According to the Daily Mail Reporter,"Changes in our planet's core are causing the north magnetic pole to speed towards Russia at nearly 40 miles a year."
See: "Shift in magnetic north pole affects... Tampa airport"

Affect of El Niño on Mojave Desert
U.S. Geological Survey (http://mojave.usgs.gov/climate-history/)
Silurian Lake playa, Salt Creek Hills, and the snow-covered Panamint Range, February 1998. Rainfall during periods of El Niño activity typically brings wet weather to the Mojave Desert resulting in runoff and ponding of surface water in normally dry washes and playas.

Winter Weather Pattern Change in the UK
"In the 1990s and 2000s, most of the winters were milder and usually wetter than average with daytime temperatures going below freezing a rare occurrence. In fact, the winter of 1995/1996 was the only one which was defined as below average in terms of the UK as a whole. The winters of 2008/09, 2009/10 and 2010/11 have however seen a different pattern with these three winters being defined as below or well below average with large snowfall amounts widespread and very low temperatures; this was the first time three consecutive cold winters in the UK have occurred since the 1960s."

Extreme Weather in Finland
"Summer 2010 storms (Asta 29.-30.7 Vera 4.8, Lahja 7.8 and Sylvi 8.8) caused widespread damages. Insurance companies paid 81.6 million € for the storm damages. Trees fell 9.1 million m3. 480 000 persons had power line brakes, max 6 weeks. 35 000 km of the power line was damaged. Compensations costs were over 10 million € for the power customers. Other power company costs included 18 million € for the repair and 4 million $ for extra investments. Co-operation between the responsible organizations and persons did not run effectively after the storms."

"Door to Hell" gas deposit has burned for decades and affected the surrounding area
"The Derweze area is rich in natural gas. While drilling in 1971, Soviet geologists tapped into a cavern filled with natural gas.[2] The ground beneath the drilling rig collapsed, leaving a large hole with a diameter of 70 metres (230 ft) at 40°15′10″N 58°26′22″E. To avoid poisonous gas discharge, it was decided the best solution was to burn it off.[3] Geologists had hoped the fire would use all the fuel in a matter of days, but the gas is still burning today. Locals have dubbed the cavern "The Door to Hell".[4]

Pine Island Glacier breaks off B-31 Iceberg
earthobservatory.nasa.gov
Between November 9–11, 2013, a large iceberg finally separated from the calving front of Antarctica’s Pine Island Glacier. Scientists first detected a rift in the glacier in October 2011 during flights for NASA’s Operation IceBridge. By July 2013, infrared and radar images indicated that the crack had cut completely across the ice shelf to the southwestern edge. New images now show that Iceberg B-31 is finally moving away from the coast, with open water between the iceberg and the edge of Pine Island Glacier.

Shift in location of tropical storms is seen in historical records
news.nationalgeographic.com
Tropical storms appear headed for the Poles, peaking in ferocity at successively higher latitudes over the past three decades, according to a new study in the journal Nature. (Related: "Hurricanes 101.")
Climate scientists generally predict that tropical storms (called hurricanes, typhoons, or cyclones, depending on the ocean where they form) will increase in power but decline in frequency in coming decades due to global warming.
But the storms also appear to be on the move—driven by warmer oceans and wind-shear changes in the upper atmosphere—according to the Nature study, led by James Kossin of the NOAA National Climatic Data Center. "The poleward trends are evident in the global historical data," says the study.
Looking at satellite observations from 1982 to 2009—averaged across eight ocean basins—the researchers located the peak intensity of tropical cyclones, which they determined was occurring farther away from the equator.

Global warming fragmenting Himalayan glaciers
thehimalayantimes.com
The 100-page research report [Status and Decadal Glacier Change from 1980s to 2010 in Nepal based on Satellite Data] provides an analysis of four decades of glacier data from Nepal. In addition, ICIMOD released four decades of glacier data from Bhutan, as well as current data on the glaciers of five river basins (Amu Darya, Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Irrawaddy) of the HKH region. The report was released in the concluding ceremony of a three-day international conference which concluded yesterday.
According to the report, Himalaya glaciers have been gradually fragmented. The number of Himalaya glaciers has increased to 3,080 in 2010 from 3,430 in 1980 due to fragmentation caused by global warming. The ice level contained by Himalaya glaciers have also depleted to around 312.4 cubic metres of ice in 2010 from 441.36 cubic metres in 1980.

Compare this NASA shot of the Himalayan glaciers against Google Map to see how much they melted.
Enlarge Wikipedia Commons / Public Domain / NASA

NCADAC: Observed and Projected climate change impacts--Northeast
globalchange.gov/ncadac (http://www.globalchange.gov/ncadac)
Communities are affected by heat waves, more extreme precipitation events, and coastal flooding due to sea level rise and storm surge.

NCADAC: Observed and Projected climate change impacts--Southeast
globalchange.gov/ncadac (http://www.globalchange.gov/ncadac)
Decreased water availability, exacerbated by population growth and land-use change, causes increased competition for water. There are increased risks associated with extreme events such as hurricanes.

NCADAC: Observed and Projected climate change impacts--Midwest
globalchange.gov/ncadac (http://www.globalchange.gov/ncadac)
Longer growing seasons and rising carbon dioxide levels increase yields of some crops, although these benefits have already been offset in some instances by occurrence of extreme events such as heat waves, droughts, and floods.

NCADAC: Observed and Projected climate change impacts--Great Plains
Rising temperatures lead to increased demand for water and energy and impacts on
agricultural practices.

NCADAC: Observed and Projected climate change impacts--Southwest
Drought and increased warming foster wildfires and increased competition for scarce water resources for people and ecosystems.

NCADAC: Observed and Projected climate change impacts--Northwest
globalchange.gov/ncadac (http://www.globalchange.gov/ncadac)lobalchange.gov/ncadac (http://www.globalchange.gov/ncadac)
Changes in the timing of streamflow related to earlier snowmelt reduce the supply of water in summer, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences.

NCADAC: Observed and Projected climate change impacts--Alaska
globalchange.gov (http://www.globalchange.gov/ncadac)lobalchange.gov/ncadac (http://www.globalchange.gov/ncadac)
Rapidly receding summer sea ice, shrinking glaciers, and thawing permafrost cause damage to infrastructure and major changes to ecosystems. Impacts to Alaska Native communities increase.

NCADAC Observed and Projected climate change impacts--Hawai'i & Pacific Islands
Increasingly constrained freshwater supplies, coupled with increased temperatures, stress both people and ecosystems and decrease food and water security.

NCADAC: Observed and Projected climate change impacts--Coasts
Coastal lifelines, such as water supply infrastructure and evacuation routes, are increasingly vulnerable to higher sea levels and storm surges, inland flooding, and other climate-related changes.

NCADAC Observed and Projected climate change impacts: Oceans
The oceans are currently absorbing about a quarter of human-caused carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and over 90% of the heat associated with global warming, leading to ocean acidification and the alteration of marine ecosystems.

NCADAC: Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin Run off is Declining
In recent decades, water demands have risen
rapidly in the Upper Chattahoochee River (due to urban growth) and Lower Chattahoochee and Flint Rivers (due to expansion of irrigated agriculture). At the same time, basin precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff are declining, creating challenging water sharing tradeoffs for the basin stakeholders.159 The historical water demand and supply trends are expected to continue in the coming decades. Climate assessments for 50 historical (1960-2009) and future years (2050-2099) based on a scenario of continued increases in emissions (A2) for the Seminole and all other ACF sub-basins152 show that soil moisture is projected to continue to decline in all months, especially during the crop growing season from April to October (bottom right). Mean monthly runoff decreases (up to 20%, not shown) are also projected throughout the year and especially during the wet season from November to May. The projected soil moisture and runoff shifts are even more significant in the extreme values of the respective distributions. In addition to reduced supplies, these projections imply higher water demands in the agricultural and other sectors,
exacerbating management challenges. These challenges are reflected in the projected response of Lake Lanier, the main ACF regulation project, the levels of which are projected (for 2050-2099) to be lower, by as much as 15 feet, than its historical (1960-2009) levels, particularly during droughts (top right). Recognizing these critical management challenges, the ACF stakeholders are earnestly working to develop a sustainable and equitable management plan that balances economic, ecological, and social values.160 (Figure source: Georgia Water Resources Institute, Georgia Institute of Technology.152).

NCADAC: Melting permafrost creates road hazards
nca2014.globalchange.gov
Permafrost – soil saturated with frozen water – is a key feature of the Alaskan landscape. Frozen permafrost is a suitable base for transportation infrastructure such as roads and airfields. In rapidly warming Alaska, however, as permafrost thaws into mud, road shoulders slump, highway cuts slide, and runways sink. Alaska currently spends an extra $10 million per year repairing permafrost damage.
A recent study, which examined potential climate damage to Alaskan public infrastructure using results from three different climate models, considered 253 airports, 853 bridges, 131 harbors, 819 miles of railroad, 4,576 miles of paved road, and 5,000 miles of unpaved road that could be affected by climate change. The present value of additional public infrastructure costs due to climate change impacts was estimated at $5.6 to $7.6 billion through 2080, or 10% to 12% of total public infrastructure costs in Alaska. These costs might be reduced by 40% with strong adaptation actions.

NCADAC: Possible Future Flood Depths in Mobile, AL with Rising Sea Level
nca2014.globalchange.gov
Many coastal areas in the United States, including the Gulf Coast, are especially vulnerable to sea level rise impacts on transportation systems.1,2,3 This is particularly true when one considers the interaction among sea level rise, wave action, and local geology.4 This map shows that many parts of Mobile, Alabama, including critical roads, rail lines, and pipelines, would be exposed to storm surge under a scenario of a 30-inch sea level rise combined with a storm similar to Hurricane Katrina. Not all roads would be flooded if they merely run through low areas since some are built above flood levels. A 30-inch sea level rise scenario is within the range projected for global sea level rise (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 10). (Figure source: U.S. Department of Transportation 2012

NCADAC: Winter storm-related closures of I-5 and I-90 in Washington state, 2007-2008
nca2014.globalchange.gov
In December 2007, heavy rainfall west of I-5, combined with melting snow from the mountains, created extremely high floodwaters in western Washington State. Six-hour rainfall amounts were near a 100-year event for areas in Southwest Washington. High winds, heavy rains, mudslides, and falling trees made travel unsafe on highways. Downed power lines blocked roads, and, in many urban areas, rainwater overwhelmed drainage systems and flooded roadways.
The combined economic impact in the I-5 and I-90 corridors was estimated at almost $75 million, of which some $47 million was associated with the I-5 disruption and $28 million with the I-90 corridor. Estimated highway damage from the winter storm was $18 million for state routes and another $39 million for city and county roads.

NCADAC: Tropical storm Irene devastates Vermont transportation in August 2011
In August of 2011, Vermont was inundated with rain and massive flooding from Tropical Storm Irene (see also Ch.16: Northeast, “Hurricane Vulnerability”), closing down 146 segments of the state road system with more than 200 bridges, and costing an estimated $175 to $200 million to rebuild state highways and bridges. An additional 2,000 or more municipal roads and nearly 1,000 culverts were damaged, and more than 200 miles of state-owned rail required repair.75
In August of 2011, Vermont was inundated with rain and massive flooding from Tropical Storm Irene (see also Ch. 16:Northeast, “Hurricane Vulnerability”), closing down 146 segments of the state road system along with more than 200 bridges, and costing an estimated $175 to $200 million to rebuild state highways and bridges. An additional 2,000 or more municipal roads and nearly 1,000 culverts were damaged, and more than 200 miles of state-owned rail required repair.
The volume of water was unprecedented, as was the power of the water in the rivers running through the state. Culverts and bridges were affected and slope stability was threatened as a result of the immense amount and power of water and subsequent flooding.

NCADAC: Reduced winter chilling projected for California
nca2014.globalchange.gov (http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/agriculture)
Many perennial plants (such as fruit trees and grape vines) require exposure to particular numbers of chilling hours (hours in which the temperatures are between 32°F and 50°F over the winter). This number varies among species, and many trees require chilling hours before flowering and fruit production can occur. With rising temperatures, chilling hours will be reduced. One example of this change is shown here for California’s Central Valley, assuming that observed climate trends in that area continue through 2050 and 2090. Under such a scenario, a rapid decrease in the number of chilling hours is projected to occur.
By 2000, the number of chilling hours in some regions was 30% lower than in 1950. Based on the A2 emissions scenario that assumes continued increases in heat-trapping gases relative to 1950, the number of chilling hours is projected to decline by 30% to 60% by 2050 and by up to 80% by 2100. These are very conservative estimates of the reductions in chilling hours because climate models project not just simple continuations of observed trends (as assumed here), but temperature trends rising at an increasing rate. To adapt to these kinds of changes, trees with a lower chilling requirement would have to be planted and reach productive age.

NCADAC: Conifer mortality rates of up to 87%
Conifers in many western forests have experienced mortality rates of up to 87% from warming-induced changes in the prevalence of pests and pathogens and stress from drought.

NCADAC: Climate change was found to decrease the nutritional quality of grasses,
Variation in the timing and magnitude of precipitation due to climate change was found to decrease the nutritional quality of grasses, and consequently reduce weight gain of bison in the Konza Prairie in Kansas and the Tallgrass Prairie Preserve in Oklahoma.124 Results provide insight into how climate change will affect grazer population dynamics
in the future.

NCADAC:Some warm-water fishes have moved northwards
As ocean temperatures continue to rise, the range of suitable habitat for many commercially important fish and shellfish species is projected to shift northward. For example, cod and lobster fisheries south of Cape Cod are projected to have significant declines., Although suitable habitats will be shrinking for some species (such as coldwater fish like brook trout) and expanding for others (such as warmwater fish like bass), it is difficult to predict what proportion of species will be able to move or adapt as their optimum climate zones shift.

NCADAC: Native bees have advanced their spring arrival in the northeast
Over the last 130 years (1880-2010), native bees have advanced their spring arrival in the northeastern U.S. by an average of 10 days, primarily due to increased warming. Plants have also showed a trend of earlier blooming, thus helping preserve the synchrony in timing between plants and pollinators.

NCADAC: Climate Change Projected to Worsen Asthma
Projected increases in temperature, changes in wind patterns, and ecosystem changes will all affect future ground-level ozone concentrations. Climate projections using an increasing emissions scenario (A2) suggest that ozone concentrations in the New York metropolitan region will increase because of future climate change. This figure shows the estimated increase in ozone-related emergency room visits for children in New York in the 2020s (compared to the mid-1990s) resulting from climate change related increases in ozone concentrations. The results from this modeling exercise are shown as a percent change in visits specifically attributed to ozone exposure. For example, the 10.2% increase in Suffolk County represents five additional emergency room visits that could be attributed to increased ozone exposure over the baseline of 46 ozone-related visits from the mid-1990s. In 2010, an estimated 25.7 million Americans had asthma, which has become a problem in every state. (Figure source: Sheffield et al. 20111).

NCADAC: The frequency and range of harmful blooms of algae are increasing.
Remote sensing color image of harmful algal bloom in Lake Erie on October 9, 2011. The bright green areas have high concentrations of algae, which can be harmful to human health. The frequency and range of harmful blooms of algae are increasing. Because algal blooms are closely related to climate factors, projected changes in climate could affect algal blooms and lead to increases in water- and food-borne exposures and subsequent cases of illness. Other factors related to increases in harmful algal blooms include shifts in ocean conditions such as excess nutrient inputs. (Figure source: NASA Earth Observatory).                                                                                                                                                                                       Wikipedia Commons / NASA / Public Domain

NCADAC: Potential impacts of climate change on the transmission of Lyme disease
The development and survival of blacklegged ticks, their animal hosts, and the Lyme disease bacterium, Borrelia burgdorferi, are strongly influenced by climatic factors, especially temperature, precipitation, and humidity. Potential impacts of climate change on the transmission of Lyme disease include: 1) changes in the geographic distribution of the disease due to the increase in favorable habitat for ticks to survive off their hosts; 2) a lengthened transmission season due to earlier onset of higher temperatures in the spring and later onset of cold and frost; 3) higher tick densities leading to greater risk in areas where the disease is currently observed, due to milder winters and potentially larger rodent host populations; and 4) changes in human behaviors, including increased time outdoors, which may increase the risk of exposure to infected ticks.

NCADAC: Northeast has experienced a greater recent increase in extreme precipitation than any other region
nca2014.globalchange.gov (http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/northeast)
The Northeast has experienced a greater recent increase in extreme precipitation than any other region in the United States; between 1958 and 2010, the Northeast saw more than a 70% increase in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (defined as the heaviest 1% of all daily events)

NCADAC: Northeast flooding
nca2014.globalchange.gov (http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/northeast)
Historical settlement patterns and ongoing investment in coastal areas and along major rivers combine to increase the vulnerabilities of people in the Northeast to sea level rise and coastal storms. Of the Northeast’s population of 64 million, approximately 1.6 million people live within the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) 100-year coastal flood zone, with the majority – 63% of those at risk – residing in New York and New Jersey. As sea levels rise, populations in the current 1-in-100-year coastal flood zone (defined as the area with at least a 1% chance of experiencing a coastal flood in a given year) will experience more frequent flooding, and populations that have historically fallen outside the 1-in-100-year flood zone will find themselves in that zone. People living in coastal flood zones are vulnerable to direct loss of life and injury associated with tropical storms and nor’easters. Flood damage to personal property, businesses, and public infrastructure can also result (see Key Message 2).

NCADAC: Farmers in the Northeast are already experiencing consequences of climate change
nca2014.globalchange.gov (http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/northeast)
Despite a trend toward warmer winters, the risk of frost and freeze damage continues, and has paradoxically increased over the past decade (see also Ch. 8: Ecosystems). These risks are exacerbated for perennial crops in years with variable winter temperatures. For example, midwinter-freeze damage cost wine grape growers in the Finger Lakes region of New York millions of dollars in losses in the winters of 2003 and 2004. This was likely due to de-hardening of the vines during an unusually warm December, which increased susceptibility to cold damage just prior to a subsequent hard freeze. Another avenue for cold damage, even in a relatively warm winter, is when there is an extended warm period in late winter or early spring causing premature leaf-out or bloom, followed by a damaging frost event, as occurred throughout the Northeast in 2007 and again in 2012 when apple, grape, cherry, and other fruit crops were hard hit.

NCADAC: Upslope shift of 299 to 390 feet in the boundary between northern hardwoods and boreal forest on the western slopes of the Green Mountains between 1964 and 2004.
Effects of rising temperatures on the Northeast’s ecosystems have already been clearly observed (see also Ch. 8: Ecosystems). Further, changes in species distribution by elevation are occurring; a Vermont study found an upslope shift of 299 to 390 feet in the boundary between northern hardwoods and boreal forest on the western slopes of the Green Mountains between 1964 and 2004. Wildflowers and woody perennials are blooming earlier , and migratory birds are arriving sooner. Because species differ in their ability to adjust, asynchronies (like a mismatch between key food source availability and migration patterns) can develop, increasing species and ecosystem vulnerability. Several bird species have expanded their ranges northward as have some invasive insect species, such as the hemlock woolly adelgid, which has devastated hemlock trees. Warmer winters and less snow cover in recent years have contributed to increased deer populations that degrade forest understory vegetation.

NCADAC: Drowning of estuarine wetlands
As sea levels rise, the Chesapeake Bay region is expected to experience an increase in coastal flooding and drowning of estuarine wetlands. The lower Chesapeake Bay is especially at risk due to high rates of sinking land (known as subsidence). Climate change and sea level rise are also likely to cause a number of ecological impacts, including declining water quality and clarity, increases in harmful algae and low oxygen (hypoxia) events, decreases in a number of species including eelgrass and seagrass beds, and changing interactions among trophic levels (positions in the food chain) leading to an increase in subtropical fish and shellfish species in the bay.

NCADAC: Ongoing land loss already affecting Louisiana tribes.
nca2014.globalchange.gov (http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/southeast)
Climate change impacts, especially sea level rise and related increases in storm surges pulsing farther inland, will continue to exacerbate ongoing land loss already affecting Louisiana tribes. Four Native communities in Southeast Louisiana (Grand Bayou Village, Grand Caillou/Dulac, Isle de Jean Charles, and Pointe-au-Chien) have already experienced significant land loss. Management of river flow has deprived the coastal wetlands of the freshwater and sediment that they need to replenish and persist. Dredging of canals through marshes for oil and gas exploration and pipelines has led to erosion and intense saltwater intrusion, resulting in additional land loss. Due to these and other natural and man-made problems, Louisiana has lost 1,880 square miles of land in the last 80 years. This combination of changes has resulted in a cascade of losses of sacred places, healing plants, habitat for important wildlife, food security, and in some cases connectivity with the mainland. Additional impacts include increased inundation of native lands, further travel to reach traditional fishing grounds, reduced connections among family members as their lands have become more flood-prone and some have had to move, and declining community cohesiveness as heat requires more indoor time.

NCADAC: Increasing numbers of days above 95°F and nights above 75°F
nca2014.globalchange.gov (http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/southeast)
There have been increasing numbers of days above 95°F and nights above 75°F, and decreasing numbers of extremely cold days since 1970. The Caribbean also exhibits a trend since the 1950s, with increasing numbers of very warm days and nights, and with daytime maximum temperatures above 90°F and nights above 75°F. Daily and five-day rainfall intensities have also increased. Also, summers have been either increasingly dry or extremely wet. For the Caribbean, precipitation trends are unclear, with some regions experiencing smaller annual amounts of rainfall and some increasing amounts. Although the number of major tornadoes has increased over the last 50 years, there is no statistically significant trend (Ch 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 9)., This increase may be attributable to better reporting of tornadoes. The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic basin has increased substantially since the early 1980s compared to the historical record that dates back to the mid-1880s (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 8). This can be attributed to both natural variability and climate change.

NCADAC: Sea level rise will impair the capacity of stormwater drainage systems to empty into the ocean.
nca2014.globalchange.gov (http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/southeast)
There is an imminent threat of increased inland flooding during heavy rain events in low-lying coastal areas such as southeast Florida, where just inches of sea level rise will impair the capacity of stormwater drainage systems to empty into the ocean.

NCADAC: 2007 drought cost the Georgia agriculture industry $339 million in crop losses,
The 2007 drought cost the Georgia agriculture industry $339 million in crop losses, and the 2002 drought cost the agricultural industry in North Carolina $398 million. A 2.2ºF increase in temperature would likely reduce overall productivity for corn, soybeans, rice, cotton, and peanuts across the South – though rising CO2 levels could partially offset these decreases based on a crop yield simulation model. In Georgia, climate projections indicate corn yields could decline by 15% and wheat yields by 20% through 2020.In addition, many fruit crops from long-lived trees and bushes require chilling periods and may need to be replaced in a warming climate.

NCADAC: The southeast leads the nation in number of wildfires.
The southeastern U.S. (data include Texas and Oklahoma, not Puerto Rico) leads the nation in number of wildfires, averaging 45,000 fires per year, and this number continues to increase., Increasing temperatures contribute to increased fire frequency, intensity, and size, though at some level of fire frequency, increased fire frequency would lead to decreased fire intensity. Lightning is a frequent initiator of wildfires, and the Southeast currently has the greatest frequency of lightning strikes of any region of the country. Increasing temperatures and changing atmospheric patterns may affect the number of lightning strikes in the Southeast, which could influence air quality, direct injury, and wildfires.Drought often correlates with large wildfire events, as seen with the Okeefenokee (2007) and Florida fires (1998). The 1998 Florida fires led to losses of more than $600 million. Wildfires also affect human health through reduced air quality and direct injuries.,,, Expanding population and associated land-use fragmentation will limit the application of prescribed burning, a useful adaptive strategy. Growth management could enhance the ability to pursue future adaptive management of forest fuels.

NCADAC: The rate of warming in the Midwest has markedly accelerated.
nca2014.globalchange.gov (http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/midwest)
The rate of warming in the Midwest has markedly accelerated over the past few decades. Between 1900 and 2010, the average Midwest air temperature increased by more than 1.5°F (Figure 18.1). However, between 1950 and 2010, the average temperature increased twice as quickly, and between 1980 and 2010, it increased three times as quickly as it did from 1900 to 2010. Warming has been more rapid at night and during winter. These trends are consistent with expectations of increased concentrations of heat-trapping gases and observed changes in concentrations of certain particles in the atmosphere.

NCADAC: In the Midwest the 10 rainiest days can contribute as much as 40% of total precipitation in a given year
nca2014.globalchange.gov (http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/midwest)
Precipitation in the Midwest is greatest in the east, declining towards the west. Precipitation occurs about once every seven days in the western part of the region and once every three days in the southeastern part. The 10 rainiest days can contribute as much as 40% of total precipitation in a given year. Generally, annual precipitation increased during the past century (by up to 20% in some locations), with much of the increase driven by intensification of the heaviest rainfalls.,, This tendency towards more intense precipitation events is projected to continue in the future.

NCADAC: Record flood event exceeded the once-in-500-year flood level by more than 5 feet,
nca2014.globalchange.gov (http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/midwest)
Cedar Rapids, Des Moines, Iowa City, and Ames, Iowa, have all suffered multi-million-dollar losses from floods since 1993. In June 2008, a record flood event exceeded the once-in-500-year flood level by more than 5 feet, causing $5 to $6 billion in damages from flooding, or more than $40,000 per resident of the city of Cedar Rapids. The flood inundated much of the downtown, damaging more than 4,000 structures, including 80% of government offices, and displacing 25,000 people.The record flood at Cedar Rapids was the result of low reservoir capacity and extreme rainfall on soil already saturated from unusually wet conditions. Rainfall amounts comparable to those in 1993 (8 inches over two weeks) overwhelmed a flood control system designed largely for a once-in-100-year flood event. Such events are consistent with observations and projections of wetter springs and more intense precipitation events (see Figure 18.6). With the help of more than $3 billion in funding from the federal and state government, Cedar Rapids is recovering and has taken significant steps to reduce future flood damage, with buyouts of more than 1,000 properties, and numerous buildings adapted with flood protection measures.

NCADAC: Great Lakes: higher water temperatures and less ice cover .
The Great Lakes, North America’s largest freshwater feature, have recently recorded higher water temperatures and less ice cover as a result of changes in regional climate (see also Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 11). Summer surface water temperatures in Lakes Huron increased 5.2°F and in Lake Ontario, 2.7°F, between 1968 and 2002, with smaller increases in Lake Erie., Due to the reduction in ice cover, the temperature of surface waters in Lake Superior during the summer increased 4.5°F, twice the rate of increase in air temperature. These lake surface temperatures are projected to rise by as much as 7°F by 2050 and 12.1°F by 2100., Higher temperatures, increases in precipitation, and lengthened growing seasons favor production of blue-green and toxic algae that can harm fish, water quality, habitats, and aesthetics,,, and could heighten the impact of invasive species already present.,

NCADAC: Winter and spring precipitation is projected to increase in the northern states of the Great Plains region.
Winter and spring precipitation is projected to increase in the northern states of the Great Plains region under the A2 scenario, relative to the 1971-2000 average. In central areas, changes are projected to be small relative to natural variations (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 5). Projected changes in summer and fall precipitation are small except for summer drying in the central Great Plains, although the exact locations of this drying are uncertain. The number of days with heavy precipitation is expected to increase by mid-century, especially in the north (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 6). Large parts of Texas and Oklahoma are projected to see longer dry spells (up to 5 more days on average by mid-century). By contrast, changes are projected to be minimal in the north (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 7).

NCADAC: Projected changes in summer and fall precipitation are small.
In central areas, changes are projected to be small relative to natural variations (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 5). Projected changes in summer and fall precipitation are small except for summer drying in the central Great Plains, although the exact locations of this drying are uncertain. The number of days with heavy precipitation is expected to increase by mid-century, especially in the north (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 6).

NCADAC: Texas and Oklahoma are projected to see longer dry spells.
Large parts of Texas and Oklahoma are projected to see longer dry spells (up to 5 more days on average by mid-century). By contrast, changes are projected to be minimal in the north (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 7).

NCADAC: Southwest has heated up markedly in recent decades
nca2014.globalchange.gov (http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/southwest)
The Southwest is already experiencing the impacts of climate change. The region has heated up markedly in recent decades, and the period since 1950 has been hotter than any comparably long period in at least 600 years (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 3).,,,,,,,, The decade 2001-2010 was the warmest in the 110-year instrumental record, with temperatures almost 2°F higher than historic averages, with fewer cold air outbreaks and more heat waves. Compared to relatively uniform regional temperature increases, precipitation trends vary considerably across the region, with portions experiencing decreases and others experiencing increases (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 5). There is mounting evidence that the combination of human-caused temperature increases and recent drought has influenced widespread tree mortality,, increased fire occurrence and area burned, and forest insect outbreaks (Ch. 7: Forests). Human-caused temperature increases and drought have also caused earlier spring snowmelt and shifted runoff to earlier in the year.

NCADAC: Less late-winter precipitation falling as snow in the Southwest.
nca2014.globalchange.gov (http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/southwest)
Winter snowpack, which slowly melts and releases water in spring and summer, when both natural ecosystems and people have the greatest needs for water, is key to the Southwest’s hydrology and water supplies. Over the past 50 years across most of the Southwest, there has been less late-winter precipitation falling as snow, earlier snowmelt, and earlier arrival of most of the year’s streamflow. Streamflow totals in the Sacramento-San Joaquin, the Colorado, the Rio Grande, and in the Great Basin were 5% to 37% lower between 2001 and 2010 than the 20th century average flows. Projections of further reduction of late-winter and spring snowpack and subsequent reductions in runoff and soil moisture,, pose increased risks to the water supplies needed to maintain the Southwest’s cities, agriculture, and ecosystems.